TL;DR
Get health and wellness essentials delivered free with Prime
- Fast, free delivery on millions of items
- Prime Video, Amazon Music and more included
- Member-only deals all year
A study comparing food supplies, temperatures and diabetes estimates found Southern Europe’s dietary energy mix was closest to Planetary Health Diet targets among four European regions. Yet estimated diabetes prevalence among adults aged 20 to 79 rose from 6.4% in 2011 to 9.3% in 2024. The ecological study cannot show that diet or warming caused the increase, and its food data describe national supply rather than what people actually eat.
A European study found that Southern Europe’s food supply was the closest of four regional diets to Planetary Health Diet targets, while estimated diabetes prevalence among adults aged 20 to 79 in the region rose from 6.4% in 2011 to 9.3% in 2024. The researchers also observed generally rising temperatures, particularly in Southern Europe, but their ecological comparison does not establish that diet or climate change caused the increase in diabetes.
Published in the journal Sustainability, the study compared regional temperatures, national food availability and diabetes prevalence across Northern, Southern, Eastern and Western Europe. Its authors were affiliated with the University of Chieti-Pescara, Italy’s National Research Council, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and San Giovanni Addolorata Hospital in Rome. The work also examined Italy, including its food traditions, after Italian cuisine was recognized by UNESCO as intangible cultural heritage in December 2025.
For the European analysis, the researchers used ERA5 reanalysis data to calculate area-weighted annual average temperatures from 2014 to 2024. They compared food availability in 62 countries using United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization data from 2010 to 2023, and drew diabetes estimates from the International Diabetes Federation. The food measure represents national food supply, not individuals’ diets; the regional dietary comparisons were unweighted averages.
Across the regions, available energy from tree nuts and legumes averaged 1.3% and 0.8%, respectively, compared with a Planetary Health Diet recommendation of 11.5% for each. Milk and butter accounted for 14.3% of available dietary energy, against a 6.1% target, while meat was 10.8%, compared with 1.9%. Sugar and sweeteners made up 12%, versus a 4.8% target. Southern Europe had the highest share from unsaturated plant oils, at 17.4%, above the 14.8% target. The study said cereals aligned with the diet’s target, but the data did not distinguish whole from refined grains.
Diet Scores and Diabetes Trends
The findings illustrate why a region-wide diet score cannot, by itself, explain a population’s diabetes trend. “Closest to the target” is a relative comparison among four regions, not evidence that Southern Europeans follow the Planetary Health Diet in full or that their diets protect against diabetes. Even this region’s food supply differed from several targets, including those for nuts, legumes and sugar.
The diabetes estimates point to a public-health trend worth monitoring: prevalence rose in three of the four regions covered. In Southern Europe, the estimate increased by 2.9 percentage points between 2011 and 2024. That change is not a measure of an individual’s risk, and the study does not identify its cause. Population health reflects many factors, including food consumption, physical activity, age, diagnosis and access to care.
Temperature trends add another reason for attention, particularly for people already living with diabetes. The researchers discuss possible heat-related risks, but do not show that rising temperatures explain the regional prevalence figures. The paper notes that evidence linking heat and hypoglycemia is mainly about short-term outcomes in people with type 1 diabetes; it should not be generalized as proof of a population-wide effect.
Products Worth Considering
Fitbit Sense 2 Health and Fitness Smartwatch, Shadow Grey/Graphite
Therabody SleepMask with Vibration
Garmin Forerunner 165 GPS Running Smartwatch, 43 mm, Black
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
How the Regional Comparison Worked
The study set food-supply proportions against the Planetary Health Diet (PHD), a dietary framework that combines health and environmental considerations. The comparison focused on each food category’s share of available dietary energy, rather than the total amount of food consumed by individuals. As a result, it can show broad differences in supply, but not whether people ate particular foods, how much they ate or how their diets varied within a country.
The broader climate rationale is that food systems contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. The study’s introductory material cites estimates that food systems account for 21% to 37% of global emissions and that a more sustainable diet could reduce non-carbon-dioxide emissions in Europe by up to 40%. These are background estimates, not outcomes measured by this regional comparison.
Diabetes prevalence estimates among adults aged 20 to 79 increased in Southern Europe, Western Europe and Northern Europe from 2011 to 2024. Western Europe rose from 5.3% to 6.5%, and Northern Europe from 4.7% to 6.2%. Eastern Europe’s estimate fell from 7.3% to approximately 6%, though the authors cautioned that reporting limitations may have affected those figures. The regional temperature analysis found generally rising annual averages, with a stronger warming trend in the south; Northern Europe showed a marginally negative trend.
What the Data Cannot Explain
The study is an ecological comparison: it places regional-level measures alongside one another. It does not track the same individuals’ food intake, heat exposure and diabetes status over time. It therefore cannot determine whether a particular diet, temperature change or other factor caused diabetes, nor can it explain why Southern Europe’s estimated prevalence rose while its food-supply profile ranked closest to PHD targets.
Several limits shape the interpretation. National food availability is not equivalent to consumption, and the cereal data did not separate whole grains from refined grains. The authors also flag possible reporting limitations in Eastern Europe’s diabetes estimates. The supplied study summary does not provide the Italian diabetes results beyond noting that the researchers examined temperature and prevalence data, so no specific Italian trend can be reported here.
It also remains unclear how much of the change in prevalence reflects changes in underlying disease, population composition, detection or reporting. The temperature findings are regional annual averages, which do not describe local exposure, individual circumstances or the effects of specific heatwaves.
What Further Evidence Is Needed
The study offers a broad comparison rather than a causal test, so the next step for research would be to connect individual-level diet and health information with exposure to heat over time. More detailed data could distinguish food actually eaten from food supplied and separate whole grains from refined cereals, allowing researchers to examine whether specific patterns are associated with diabetes outcomes.
For now, the reported figures provide a regional snapshot through 2024 for diabetes estimates and through 2024 for the temperature analysis, while food-supply data run through 2023. The source material does not identify a planned follow-up, a new data release date or a policy response. Readers should treat the study as evidence of parallel trends and regional differences, not a forecast of future diabetes rates or proof of a climate or dietary cause.
Key Questions
What is the study’s main finding?
Southern Europe’s food-supply profile was the closest among four European regions to Planetary Health Diet recommendations. At the same time, estimated diabetes prevalence among adults aged 20 to 79 increased from 6.4% in 2011 to 9.3% in 2024.
Does the study show that Southern Europe’s diet caused diabetes to rise?
No. The researchers compared regional data and did not follow individuals’ diets and health over time. The analysis cannot establish cause and effect, and food-supply figures do not show what individuals actually ate.
What does “closest to the Planetary Health Diet” mean here?
It means Southern Europe’s shares of available dietary energy across food categories were more similar to the study’s PHD targets than those in the other three regions. It does not mean the region met every target; for example, its supply shares for nuts and legumes were low compared with recommendations.
Did the study link warmer temperatures to higher diabetes prevalence?
It reported generally rising temperatures, especially in Southern Europe, alongside regional diabetes estimates. The comparison does not demonstrate that warming caused the prevalence increase. The researchers discuss possible heat-related health risks, but those are not established as the explanation for the regional trend.
What remains unknown about the results?
The analysis does not explain why Southern Europe’s estimate rose, how much the trend reflects disease versus changes in detection or reporting, or how individuals’ diets and heat exposure affected their health. The supplied report also does not give the specific Italian diabetes findings.
Source: news-medical.net
